The results of the Scottish referendum are in, and they are in favor of a united Union. But this in no way is a testimony that the status quo will be maintained. Pratiti Ganatra reports…
Scotland has spoken. In last Thursday’s referendum, the people of Scotland have voted against becoming an independent country by 55% to 45%. It may seem like a massive victory for the Better Together side, which has for the past few months rigorously championed the cause of staying with the 307-year old Union, but one has to remember that 44.70% – an astonishing 1,617,989 people wanted Scotland to become an independent nation.
The referendum posed a simple yes/no question to the Scottish people – Should Scotland be an independent country? Any person who was over the age of 16 and lived in Scotland was eligible to vote. With a total electorate of 4,283,392, the referendum saw a massive voter turnout of 84.59%.
The Yes Scotland campaign may have lost, the idea of an independent Scotland may have been defeated for now, but this was nothing short of a massive turnaround from when the campaign started more than 16 weeks ago. The initial figures of 25% votes going to the Yes Scotland team surged because of rigorous campaigning and led to massive panic at Westminster. The panic was so intense that the government promised before the referendum that they would devolve more powers to Scotland if it stayed in the union. The British politicians also offered continued subsidies to the Scottish if they stayed.
The Yes vote was also threatened by various other serious issues – like the idea of the sterling as the future currency of Scotland being rejected outright by the British government, the question mark over Scotland being able to become a member of the European Union if it refused to accept the Euro, benefits like a permanent seat at the UN Security Council, leadership in North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and other world organisations were all at stake. Oil was one of the most vehemently debated questions in the months preceding the referendum. The Yes Scotland’s campaign was based on the premise that the revenue from the North Sea oil shores should only be Scotland’s. A comparison was made with Norway, which is a successful, and fiercely independent oil and gas producing nation. But the negative campaigning saying that these reserves may run out soon, and the Scottish economy would be paralysed when that happened, scared a major portion of the Scottish people.
It didn’t help that world leaders like Barack Obama and Francois Hollande openly supported the idea of a united United Kingdom. The Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and other European leaders who are facing separatist movements in their own nations were unsympathetic to the Yes Scotland’s cause quite openly.
In the end, the people of Scotland chose to remain with the Union but this does not in any way suggest that the status quo will be maintained. The question over Scotland’s independence may have been answered, but the debate over the future of the United Kingdom and how it will be run from here on is just being initiated. Scotland will remain an integral component of the UK, but the question of devolution of powers to Scotland, and for that matter to Wales and Northern Ireland, and how that timeline will play out has cropped up.
The campaign for an independent Scotland was led by YES Scotland which was headed by the Scottish National Party (SNP). The biggest victory for Alex Salmond, the First Minister of Scotland and the leader of the SNP was the fact that he brought to fruition the mere idea of a referendum. It forced an entire nation into debating and participating in the decision-making process for their future. In an agreement between the governments of the United Kingdom and Scotland on 15th October 2012, a referendum for the independence of Scotland was decided upon. The Edinburgh Agreement was a testimony to the fact that no matter what the result would be, both the parties were willing to accept the consequences amicably.
The three biggest political parties of the United Kingdom – The Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats have agreed that devolution of powers to Holyrood is something that must happen. They had in fact signed a pledge to the same effect during the campaign proclaiming that the devolution of powers was a must if the Scottish people rejected independence. Former Prime Minister and Scottish MP Gordon Brown had set a timeline to remit these massive changes, and it was widely accepted by all the parties involved. That massive constitutional changes are in store for the United Kingdom is now a given, but how Westminster will try to balance this power play is yet to be seen.
A major bone of contention that has reared its head post the referendum is the West Lothian question. This question first asked in 1977 was – “Why should the MP for Blackburn in West Lothian in Scotland be able to vote on English matters when the MP for Blackburn in Lancashire can’t vote on Scottish issues?” The English MPs from here on are likely to fight for the idea of English votes for English laws. But this has the power to complicate the issue further as this would create two classes of MPs within the same parliament. This would also mean that a government would be able to pass certain laws because it has the majority and not pass certain other laws. Many in Wales and Northern Ireland will also demand that their powers should increase.
The results of the referendum may be out, but the future of the United Kingdom and the shape it will take is something to be watched closely. And with the upcoming election in May 2015, every move made by Westminster will be under the scanner.
